ICPAC Weekly Forecast 1 - 8 July 2025
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has forecasted enhanced rainfall across several parts of Eastern Africa for the week of 1–8 July 2025, with significant weather implications for communities in the region.
Rainfall Forecast Highlights
Heavy rainfall exceeding 200 mm is expected in central to western Ethiopia and parts of southern Sudan. Moderate rainfall (50–200 mm) is forecasted over most of South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, western Kenya, central to western Ethiopia, western Eritrea, and southern Sudan. Light showers (below 50 mm) are likely in northern and central Sudan, eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, and parts of southern Somalia.
Notably, rainfall anomalies point to wetter-than-usual conditions in parts of western Kenya, central and northern Uganda, southwestern Ethiopia, southern and central Sudan, and most of South Sudan. Conversely, drier-than-usual conditions may occur in some areas of western South Sudan, southeastern Sudan, northern Ethiopia, and western Eritrea.
Exceptional rainfall—above the 90th percentile—is expected in parts of southern Sudan, central to eastern South Sudan, western and northern Ethiopia, western Eritrea, and areas from eastern Uganda into western Kenya.
Flood Risk
The forecast indicates a high likelihood of flooding in flood-prone regions, including north-western and central Ethiopia, south-central Sudan, and north-central South Sudan.
Temperature Forecast
High temperatures above 32°C are expected across northern Sudan, the Red Sea coast, northeastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and northwestern Somalia. Most of the region will experience moderate to high temperatures (20–32°C), while cooler conditions (below 20°C) are expected in Rwanda, Burundi, southern Uganda, central to southern Tanzania, and southwestern Kenya.
Temperature anomalies reveal cooler-than-usual conditions in eastern South Sudan, southwestern Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan, while much of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) may experience warmer-than-usual temperatures. Elevated heat stress levels are also anticipated in northern Sudan and Ethiopia's Afar region.
For more, visit ICPAC’s East Africa Hazards Watch: ICPAC’s East Africa Hazards Watch https://www.icpac.net/