Environment

Tanzania is expected to experience unusually heavy rainfall in its central to southern regions between February 4 and 11, 2025. At the same time, the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region will likely see warmer-than-average temperatures, according to the latest weather forecasts from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).

During this period, moderate rainfall ranging between 50 and 200 millimeters is expected across most parts of Burundi and central to southern Tanzania. In contrast, northern Tanzania and most parts of Rwanda are likely to receive light rainfall of less than 50 millimeters. It is important to note that one millimeter of rainfall is equivalent to one liter of water per square meter.

Rainfall anomalies indicate that central to southeastern Tanzania will receive more precipitation than usual, whereas the western regions of the country will experience lower-than-normal rainfall. Some areas in the central to southern regions may see exceptional rainfall amounts exceeding the top 10% of recorded levels. This raises concerns about potential flooding, particularly in flood-prone areas, where residents should remain vigilant and stay updated on weather alerts.

The temperature forecast for the same period suggests that moderate to high temperatures, ranging between 20 and 32 degrees Celsius, will prevail across South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, central to southern Sudan, and the eastern parts of Rwanda and Burundi. Meanwhile, milder conditions, with temperatures below 20 degrees Celsius, are expected in northern Sudan, the Ethiopian highlands, northern Somalia, and parts of central to western Kenya.

Temperature anomalies point to warmer-than-usual conditions across most of the GHA region, with some areas in southeastern Kenya and isolated parts of the region experiencing cooler-than-normal temperatures. Additionally, extreme cautionary heat stress levels are anticipated in South Sudan, southern Sudan, eastern Tanzania and Kenya, and southern Somalia. See weather maps here .

In the week of 29 January - 05 February 2025 more than usual rainfall is expected in parts of southern Kenya and central to eastern Tanzania this week, coupled with warmer-than-average temperatures across most of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region. Communities are advised to stay vigilant, especially in flood-prone areas.

Rainfall Forecast

Total Rainfall

Moderate rainfall (50-200 mm) is expected across most of Burundi, Tanzania, and parts of south-western Kenya. Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) is anticipated in western Rwanda, northern Burundi, south-western to western Kenya, northern Tanzania, and regions along the Red Sea coast.

(Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 liter of water per square meter.)

Rainfall Anomalies

Above-average rainfall is predicted for parts of south-western Kenya and central to eastern Tanzania.

Below-average rainfall is likely over central to western regions of Tanzania.

Exceptional Rainfall

Rainfall exceeding the top 10% of historical records is forecasted in isolated areas of central and southern Tanzania.

Flood Risks

Areas in central Tanzania experiencing exceptionally heavy rainfall may see isolated incidents of flooding.

Residents in high-risk zones are urged to take precautionary measures and stay updated on local advisories.

This week’s forecast underscores the importance of preparedness in areas prone to heavy rainfall and flooding. Authorities and communities should collaborate to minimize potential impacts, particularly in central Tanzania, where exceptional weather conditions are expected.

Source: IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC). See map .

Photo: Daily News, Tanzania.

On November 16, 2024, a four-story building collapsed in Dar es Salaam's Kariakoo area, resulting in 29 confirmed deaths and 88 injuries. Rescue operations concluded after 10 days, during which more than 80 individuals were rescued from the debris. The building's owner has been arrested, and investigations into the incident are ongoing. The collapse occurred in the busy Kariakoo district, raising critical questions about building safety and emergency preparedness in urban centers. In response, President Samia Suluhu Hassan has ordered an audit of all buildings in the Kariakoo area to assess their structural integrity and prevent future tragedies.

Chief government spokesperson Thobias Makoba provided updates at the scene, sharing that rescue workers were using specialized methods to maintain communication and supply oxygen to those trapped. These techniques underscore the importance of using effective communication tools during emergencies.

Leadership in action

President Samia Suluhu Hassan, attending a G20 summit in Brazil, extended the rescue timeline several times emphasizing the commitment to saving lives. “Do not end the rescue operations. Extend it by an extra 24 hours to continue the fight for our brothers and sisters, whom we believe are still alive,” President Hassan stated. She also commended the rescue teams and volunteers for their relentless efforts.

Her decision highlights the critical role of leadership in coordinating effective communication during crises. Clear, decisive messaging can inspire action, instill hope, and guide public behavior in emergencies.

Community engagement and safety awareness

The incident has spurred significant public concern, with many volunteers stepping forward to assist rescue efforts. However, two individuals were arrested for unauthorized fundraising related to the tragedy, demonstrating the need for clear guidelines on legitimate channels for support. Transparency in crisis communication helps build trust and prevents misinformation.

This tragedy underscores the importance of community awareness about urban safety. Authorities and stakeholders should prioritize public education on structural safety and the role of citizens in reporting unsafe practices.

Risk communication takeaways

This event serves as a reminder of the critical elements of effective Risk and Crisis Communication:

• Preparedness: Ensuring robust urban planning and enforcement of safety regulations.
• Real-time updates: Providing clear, timely information to the public to manage expectations and guide action.
• Community involvement: Leveraging trusted community leaders and organizations to foster collaboration during crises.
• Building trust: Ensuring transparency in response efforts and addressing misinformation proactively.

This incident provides valuable lessons for improving emergency response and fostering community resilience in Tanzania and beyond.

Media links for further reading:

1. Rescue ends in Tanzania building collapse as death toll rises to 29

   https://apnews.com/article/tanzania-building-collapse-37451d91d64618b867ba3c564e9d24db

2.  Tanzania building collapse: Rescue efforts continue as govt vows stern action

   https://www.africanews.com/2024/11/18/tanzania-building-collapse-rescue-efforts-continue-as-govt-vows-stern-action/

3. Tanzania building collapse kills at least 13 people https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/tanzania-building-collapse-kills-least-13-people-2024-11-17/

4. Five killed, 42 rescued in Kariakoo building collapse

   https://dailynews.co.tz/five-killed-42-rescued-in-kariakoo-building-collapse/

The Serengeti-Mara ecosystem, spanning 30,000 square kilometers across Kenya’s Maasai Mara and Tanzania’s Serengeti, is a vital habitat with diverse landscapes, including savannahs, grasslands, riverine forests, and acacia woodlands. This ecosystem hosts the Great Migration, where millions of wildebeest, zebras, and other herbivores journey annually in search of food and water. This migration sustains numerous predators like lions and cheetahs, maintaining an ecological balance that exemplifies the region’s biodiversity. The ecosystem also supports species like elephants, giraffes, hippos, and a rich variety of bird species, creating a unique setting for intricate ecological interactions.

However, climate change threatens the stability of this ecosystem. A study featured in The Guardian, conducted by a research team from universities in Europe, IUCN, and Kenya Meteorological Department has examined the Mara-Serengeti’s weather patterns since 1913, noting increased temperatures, variable rainfall, and recurring severe droughts over recent decades. Average minimum temperatures have risen significantly, with Narok Town showing a 5.3°C increase from 1960 to 2024. Rainfall has also increased, alongside more frequent and intense droughts and floods, all of which are straining resources vital for wildlife and communities alike.

Global climate systems, especially the Southern Oscillation Index (which influences El Niño and La Niña events) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), have exacerbated these extreme weather conditions. Since 1970, El Niño and La Niña events have become more intense and frequent, leading to unpredictable rainfall and drought cycles in East Africa. Additionally, a warming Indian Ocean has strengthened the IOD, contributing to more frequent severe floods and droughts. These intensified climate patterns, driven by global warming, disrupt traditional migration and breeding cycles, reduce water and vegetation availability, and heighten competition between wildlife and human communities.

The impact on the ecosystem is profound. Wildlife populations are declining as animals face shrinking habitats and limited resources. Field observations, historical data from Kenya’s Game Department, and district records show that extreme weather events have repeatedly coincided with notable shifts in wildlife distribution and population. The researchers systematically ruled out other factors like poaching, pollution, or disease, confirming that climate change is the main driver.

The Serengeti-Mara ecosystem stands at a critical juncture. Conservation efforts must adapt to mitigate the effects of climate change and ensure the long-term resilience of this biodiverse landscape. Balancing the needs of both wildlife and local communities is essential to preserving the ecosystem's health and supporting those who depend on it.

Read full article in The Guardian on this link .

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 4.5 billion people worldwide lack access to essential healthcare services. Amidst global health challenges, more than 100,000 mpox cases and 200 deaths have been confirmed, and outbreaks of cholera and other diseases are escalating. A report predicts climate change could cause 14.5 million additional deaths by 2050 and impose a $1.1 trillion burden on healthcare systems. Experts warn that global preparedness remains inadequate, with lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic largely unlearned. Read more from this report by Al Jazeera.

A new study highlights the critical role of addressing gender inequalities in improving both human and environmental health. Authored by Claudia Cataldo, Roberta Masella, and Luca Busani, the research explores how the gender gap—particularly in education and political empowerment—correlates with life expectancy and environmental performance across 155 countries.

The study emphasizes that reducing gender disparities, especially in educational attainment, can positively impact not only societal well-being but also ecosystem vitality and public health. By closing the gender gap, nations could significantly enhance the effectiveness of the One Health approach, which integrates human, animal, and environmental health.

For a deeper dive into the research and its findings, read the full paper here . 

A recent paper highlights the importance of integrating gender perspectives into the One Health approach to better manage the risks at the human-animal-environment interface. Researchers Claudia Cataldo, Maria Bellenghi, Roberta Masella, and Luca Busani emphasize that gender-specific roles influence individuals' exposure to zoonoses and other infectious diseases.

The paper presents case studies on avian influenza and leptospirosis, showing how women, especially in rural communities, face higher risks due to their domestic and caregiving roles. By incorporating gender analysis, the One Health approach can improve public health interventions and reduce infection risks.

Read the full paper here: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100530

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has released its October to December 2024 seasonal forecast, revealing contrasting weather patterns across East Africa. Drier-than-normal conditions are expected in the eastern parts of the region, particularly in southern Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern Kenya, and central and southern Tanzania. These areas face increased risks of drought, which could exacerbate food insecurity and affect livelihoods. On the other hand, western parts, including northern Uganda, western Kenya, northern Tanzania, southern Burundi, and parts of Rwanda, are predicted to receive above-normal rainfall, likely boosting agricultural productivity and water availability.

This forecast highlights the urgent need for coordinated action to mitigate the impacts of these climate extremes. Warmer-than-average temperatures are also expected across the region, with the highest probabilities in eastern Tanzania, Kenya, and Ethiopia. In contrast, cooler conditions are anticipated in northern Tanzania and parts of Uganda, Kenya, and South Sudan. Experts, including IGAD's Executive Secretary Dr. Workneh Gebeyehu, stress the importance of early warning systems and preparedness efforts to address the region's food security challenges and build resilience against the growing threat of climate change.

Read more on this link . 

Burundi’s Ministry of Health declared a cholera outbreak on Wednesday, 6th September 2023, with 15 cases reported in the western part of the country, an area prone to water shortages.

Polycarpe Ndayizeye, spokesperson for the Ministry of Public Health and AIDS Control, confirmed that cholera patients had been admitted to hospitals and treatment centers in the municipality of Bujumbura. He called on authorities, residents of affected areas such as Bujumbura, Gatumba, and Rugombo, and all stakeholders to collaborate in combating the outbreak. Residents, especially those in impacted districts, were urged to strictly adhere to hygiene practices to help contain the disease.

Earlier this year, cholera claimed two lives in Bujumbura’s health district, notably at Kajaga beach on Lake Tanganyika. Water shortages, particularly during the dry season from May to September, exacerbate the risk of cholera outbreaks in Burundi’s western region.

Causative agent

Cholera is caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. It produces a toxin that targets the intestines, leading to severe watery diarrhea and dehydration. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), not all strains of V. cholerae cause illness; only specific toxin-producing strains are responsible for cholera outbreaks.

How cholera spreads

Cholera spreads through the consumption of contaminated food or water, particularly in areas with inadequate sanitation or limited access to clean water. The bacterium thrives in environments where drinking water, food, or sanitation is compromised, often after natural disasters or in densely populated areas.

Symptoms

Symptoms of cholera typically manifest within 2-5 days after exposure and include:

Profuse watery diarrhea (often described as “rice-water stools”)

Vomiting

Rapid dehydration

Muscle cramps

Severe thirst

If untreated, cholera can lead to shock and even death within hours due to the rapid loss of fluids.

Preventive measures

Preventing cholera requires addressing the core issues of water and sanitation. The WHO, Africa CDC, and US CDC recommend the following preventive actions:

Ensuring access to safe drinking water by boiling, treating with chlorine, or using bottled water

Proper disposal of human waste

Regular handwashing with soap, especially before eating and after using the bathroom

Safe food handling, including thoroughly cooking food and washing fruits and vegetables

Vaccination in high-risk areas, although vaccines alone are not a substitute for proper hygiene and sanitation practices

What to do if you get cholera

Immediate rehydration is crucial in treating cholera. The WHO recommends:

Drinking Oral Rehydration Salts (ORS) solution to replace lost fluids and electrolytes

Seeking medical care immediately if severe symptoms like frequent vomiting or extreme diarrhea occur

In severe cases, intravenous (IV) fluids may be necessary if oral hydration is insufficient

Treatment

Cholera treatment primarily focuses on rehydration. Antibiotics can also be prescribed in more severe cases to shorten the duration of the illness and reduce the volume of diarrhea. Zinc supplements are also recommended for children to aid recovery. Access to adequate treatment dramatically reduces cholera’s mortality rate to less than 1%, according to the WHO.

Regional impact

Burundi is not alone in facing cholera outbreaks. A recent update from the WHO African Region, as of August, 2023 reported cholera cases across 15 countries. Among the latest outbreaks, six countries—Burundi, Cameroon, Kenya, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zimbabwe—account for over 200 new cases. While the overall trend in the region is declining, WHO and other public health authorities urge countries to bolster surveillance, readiness, and community-based prevention measures, especially around border crossings to limit cross-border infections.

Read more here: Cholera in the WHO African Region

https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/373305/AFRO-Cholerabulletin30.pdf

On 31 July 2024, the EAC, together with the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and GIZ, announced the successful conclusion of the Water Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) Project in the region.
The US$2.5 million WASH project commenced in 2021 with the aim of strengthening the capacities of EAC Partner States to prevent and control the spread of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases using hygiene measures, risk communication, and community sensitization.

The three-year project has achieved remarkable milestones, including the installation and renovation of 43 fixed handwashing facilities at the Points of Entry and border hotspots of all seven Partner States, namely Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Uganda, and the United Republic of Tanzania. Read more