Health

ICPAC Weekly Forecast 1 - 8 July 2025

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has forecasted enhanced rainfall across several parts of Eastern Africa for the week of 1–8 July 2025, with significant weather implications for communities in the region.

Rainfall Forecast Highlights

Heavy rainfall exceeding 200 mm is expected in central to western Ethiopia and parts of southern Sudan. Moderate rainfall (50–200 mm) is forecasted over most of South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, western Kenya, central to western Ethiopia, western Eritrea, and southern Sudan. Light showers (below 50 mm) are likely in northern and central Sudan, eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, and parts of southern Somalia.

Notably, rainfall anomalies point to wetter-than-usual conditions in parts of western Kenya, central and northern Uganda, southwestern Ethiopia, southern and central Sudan, and most of South Sudan. Conversely, drier-than-usual conditions may occur in some areas of western South Sudan, southeastern Sudan, northern Ethiopia, and western Eritrea.

Exceptional rainfall—above the 90th percentile—is expected in parts of southern Sudan, central to eastern South Sudan, western and northern Ethiopia, western Eritrea, and areas from eastern Uganda into western Kenya.

Flood Risk

The forecast indicates a high likelihood of flooding in flood-prone regions, including north-western and central Ethiopia, south-central Sudan, and north-central South Sudan.

Temperature Forecast

High temperatures above 32°C are expected across northern Sudan, the Red Sea coast, northeastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and northwestern Somalia. Most of the region will experience moderate to high temperatures (20–32°C), while cooler conditions (below 20°C) are expected in Rwanda, Burundi, southern Uganda, central to southern Tanzania, and southwestern Kenya.

Temperature anomalies reveal cooler-than-usual conditions in eastern South Sudan, southwestern Ethiopia, and parts of Sudan, while much of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) may experience warmer-than-usual temperatures. Elevated heat stress levels are also anticipated in northern Sudan and Ethiopia's Afar region.

For more, visit ICPAC’s East Africa Hazards Watch: ICPAC’s East Africa Hazards Watch https://www.icpac.net/

Based on article from Medical News Today

Measles, a highly contagious airborne viral disease, is resurging globally and poses serious risks to vulnerable populations such as children, the elderly, immunocompromised individuals, and travelers. Because the virus can linger in enclosed spaces like buses, planes, and trains, travelers are at heightened risk, especially during outbreaks.

Experts Dr. Monica Gandhi (UCSF) and Dr. David Cutler (Providence Saint John’s Health Center) emphasize that vaccination is the most effective prevention tool. The MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine offers long-term immunity after two doses. Infants aged 6–11 months should get an early dose before travel, while unvaccinated teens and adults should receive two doses 28 days apart. Travelers should carry proof of vaccination and ideally receive it at least two weeks before departure.

Additional protective measures include:

i. Wearing N95 or KN95 masks in enclosed or crowded places.

ii. Practicing hand hygiene and avoiding face-touching.

iii. Ensuring ventilation, such as sitting near open windows on buses or trains.

If exposed, people should monitor for symptoms like fever, rash, and red eyes (usually appearing 7–14 days after exposure), isolate immediately, wear a mask, and seek medical attention. Supportive treatment includes rest, fluids, and fever management. In some cases, Vitamin A supplements can reduce severity. Post-exposure strategies include vaccination within 72 hours or administration of immune globulin for high-risk individuals (e.g., infants, pregnant women).

Beyond the acute phase, measles can cause long-term complications, including:

i. Immune amnesia, weakening the body’s defense against other infections.

ii. Neurological issues, such as encephalitis.

iii. Respiratory complications and possible fertility problems.

Health experts stress vigilance, early protection, and responsible travel practices to curb further spread.

Read full article here .

The Tanzania Ministry of Health, through the Office of the Chief Government Medical Officer, Dr. Grace Magembe, has issued a warning following a rise in Covid-19 infections in the country over the past three months.

The statement indicates that the number of Covid-19 cases increased from two (2) out of 139 people tested—equivalent to 1.4 percent—in February, to 31 out of 185 people tested in April, equivalent to 16.8 percent.

Some health stakeholders have offered advice on how to take precautions against the virus, while citizens have shared their reactions. Follow here on Azam Media  .

Mpox has spread along the Busia-Malaba border that links eastern Uganda and western Kenya, with risk factors centred on cross-border mobility. Community responses to Mpox are shaped by access to information on radio, television and social media as well as local terminologies, understandings of disease etiology, spiritual and religious beliefs, household structures and cross-border mobility patterns. Despite vaccine allocations from the World Health Organization (WHO), the response has been hindered by resource constraints, mistrust and cross-border challenges. This brief published on the Social Science in Humanitarian Action Platform summarises findings on how Mpox is perceived and managed in the Busia-Malaba border region. It draws on a rapid review of qualitative data, local media, non-governmental organisation (NGO) and academic reports, and cultural histories based on long-term research in the region. Read more here  .

African countries like Uganda and South Africa are rewriting the rules of emergency response. The rest of the world must follow – or fall behind.

As global health faces rising threats from pandemics, climate change, and conflict, African countries like Uganda and South Africa are offering critical lessons by integrating immunisation into broader emergency preparedness systems. Immunisation must be seen not merely as a tool to prevent disease, but as foundational infrastructure for pandemic preparedness and response (PPR). With trusted community networks, robust cold chain logistics, and real-time data systems, immunisation programmes are uniquely positioned to serve as early warning and rapid response mechanisms.

Uganda and South Africa exemplify this shift. Uganda leveraged its immunisation system during COVID-19 to enhance surveillance, contact tracing, and vaccine rollout—proving the value of integrating health security with routine services. South Africa adopted a whole-of-government approach, aligning its vaccination efforts with disaster management strategies and digital health platforms. These examples show that when countries treat immunisation as core public infrastructure, they build more resilient and responsive health systems.

Yet global frameworks still largely treat immunisation as a siloed vertical rather than a pillar of health security. As the World Health Assembly prepares to discuss the Pandemic Accord, there’s a risk of missing a pivotal opportunity to embed vaccines in the heart of preparedness planning. Delivering on the WHO’s Immunisation Agenda 2030 requires political will, integrated financing, and community leadership. Africa is showing the way—now the world must follow.

Read full article from Health Policy Watch 

As much of the Greater Horn of Africa braces for warmer-than-usual temperatures and reduced rainfall, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) forecasts significantly higher-than-average rainfall in Rwanda, Burundi, and eastern Tanzania during the week of 13–20 May 2025.

According to ICPAC's latest regional weather outlook, these three areas stand out as exceptions in an otherwise drier-than-average week across most of the region. Rainfall in these zones is expected to exceed seasonal norms, with some locations in eastern Tanzania likely experiencing exceptional rainfall surpassing the 90th percentile – meaning rainfall totals higher than 90% of historical records for this time of year.

Other regions expected to receive moderate rainfall (50–200 mm) include central to western South Sudan, central Kenya, parts of central Somalia, western Ethiopia, and eastern Tanzania. However, light rainfall (less than 50 mm) is forecast over most of Uganda, southern Ethiopia, southern Sudan, and southern South Sudan.

The rainfall distribution comes with stark anomalies. More than usual rainfall is anticipated over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, eastern Tanzania, and parts of central and northern South Sudan. Meanwhile, a notable rainfall deficit is projected over most of Uganda, southeastern South Sudan, western Kenya, and much of Somalia and southern Ethiopia – raising concerns for water availability and agricultural productivity in those regions.

This divergence in rainfall patterns may strain already vulnerable farming systems, especially in areas dependent on seasonal rains for crop planting and water replenishment.

At the same time, much of the Greater Horn of Africa will experience warmer-than-usual temperatures, with anomalies exceeding 2.5°C above average in northern and eastern Sudan, northeastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea. High temperatures exceeding 32°C are forecast for most of Sudan, western Eritrea, and northeastern Ethiopia.

These extreme temperatures could increase heat stress risks across a broad swathe of the region, including South Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, eastern Kenya, and the Afar region of Ethiopia. Prolonged heat stress not only affects human health but also puts additional pressure on livestock, agriculture, and energy needs.

The combination of excess rainfall in localized areas and persistent heat and dryness elsewhere underscores the need for region-wide climate preparedness and early warning systems. Flash floods may become a risk in areas expecting exceptional rainfall, while heatwaves and water scarcity may intensify in drier zones.

Uganda has officially declared an end to its most recent Ebola outbreak, nearly three months after the first cases were identified in the capital, Kampala.

The Ministry of Health made the announcement on 26 April 2025, confirming that 42 days had passed without any new infections—a key benchmark for declaring an outbreak over. Health officials described the development as “good news” and a testament to the country’s rapid response.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the outbreak resulted in 14 cases—12 confirmed and two classified as probable. Four deaths were recorded, including two probable cases. Ten individuals recovered.

WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus praised Uganda's efforts, posting on X: “Congratulations to the government and health workers of #Uganda on ending the #Ebola outbreak,” and commending the country’s “leadership and commitment.”

The outbreak, traced to the Sudan strain of the virus, was first detected on 30 January 2025, when a male nurse contracted the virus and later died. The Sudan strain currently has no approved vaccine. This marks Uganda’s ninth Ebola outbreak since the first was recorded in 2000.

Ebola outbreaks are not uncommon in Uganda, whose tropical forests are natural reservoirs for the virus. The latest cases emerged in Kampala—a major transport hub connecting eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kenya, Rwanda, and South Sudan. Health experts attribute Uganda’s relatively swift containment of the outbreak to its long-standing experience in handling such epidemics.

The DRC, another East African Community (EAC) member state, has experienced over a dozen Ebola outbreaks, including a major one from 2018 to 2020 that claimed nearly 2,300 lives. Uganda’s geographic proximity continue to pose a risk for cross-border transmission.

Ebola spreads through direct contact with bodily fluids of infected individuals and can cause symptoms including severe headache, muscle pain, vomiting blood, and internal bleeding.

WHO chief commends Uganda for end of Ebola

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQVCvnJ3bVU

Uganda triumphs over Ebola: A story of resilience, partnership and vigilance

https://www.unicef.org/uganda/stories/uganda-triumphs-over-ebola-story-resilience-partnership-and-vigilance

Africa CDC Commends Uganda’s Leadership in Ending Eighth Ebola Outbreak

https://africacdc.org/news-item/africa-cdc-commends-ugandas-leadership-in-ending-eighth-ebola-outbreak/

Healthcare professionals from across the EAC Partner States recently convened in Mwanza, Tanzania, for an intensive Infection Prevention and Control (IPC) training. Organised by the EAC Secretariat through the GIZ-supported Pandemic Preparedness Project, the training aimed to enhance regional capacity to respond to outbreaks in Marburg, Ebola, and Mpox.

The training was initiated following a request from Faith-Based Organizations (FBOs) for emergency support in response to the Marburg Virus Disease outbreak. Over 60 healthcare professionals from FBO-based health facilities, along with health experts from the Ministries of Health in Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, and South Sudan, participated in the programme, which was conducted in collaboration with the German Epidemic Preparedness Team (SEEG) and Africa CDC.

Read more

The Government of Tanzania has officially declared the end of the Marburg Virus Disease (MVD) outbreak in Kagera Region, following 42 days without any new reported cases.

Health Minister Jenista Mhagama made the announcement on March 13, 2025 in Biharamulo District, Kagera Region, stating that the country has met the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria for declaring the end of an outbreak. The last confirmed MVD case was reported on January 28, 2025.

The outbreak, which was first declared by President Samia Suluhu Hassan on January 20, 2025, saw two confirmed cases, both of whom tragically lost their lives while receiving treatment. Marburg Virus Disease is a severe and often fatal illness, transmitted through direct contact with body fluids of an infected person.

Minister Mhagama commended the swift and coordinated response led by the government in collaboration with various stakeholders, including healthcare workers, social welfare officers, nutritionists, and community health workers. She acknowledged the technical and financial contributions from local and international partners, as well as the dedicated efforts of responders at all levels.

Special recognition was given to the Ministry of Health’s technical team, led by Permanent Secretary Dr. Seif Shekalaghe, along with Chief Medical Officer Dr. Grace Magembe and officials from regional and district health authorities.

Despite successfully containing the outbreak, the Minister urged Tanzanians to remain vigilant against infectious diseases, emphasizing the importance of maintaining hygiene practices such as handwashing and promptly reporting any unusual health events. She warned that Tanzania remains at risk of other highly infectious diseases, including Ebola, which has been reported in neighboring countries, and Mpox, which has also affected Tanzania recently.

"The government will continue taking all necessary measures to protect its citizens and the international community from health threats," Minister Mhagama assured.

Citizens are encouraged to report any health concerns through the toll-free hotline 199 or by visiting the nearest health facility.

Read more: 

Tanzania Government Statement on Declaration of End of Marburg Outbreak In Kagera Region, Biharamulo District

WHO welcomes end of Marburg virus outbreak in Tanzania

Traditional healers join Tanzania’s Marburg response

Uganda is currently grappling with a new cluster of Ebola cases, as reported by the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) on March 6, 2025. This recent development includes three confirmed and two probable cases, spanning five districts. Since the outbreak's onset in January, the total number of cases has risen to 14, with two confirmed fatalities. 

The outbreak was initially declared following the death of a male nurse in Kampala. Subsequently, a four-year-old child also succumbed to the virus. Notably, the new cluster does not have a direct epidemiological link to the initial group of nine cases, indicating possible new transmission chains. 

The World Health Organization (WHO) has confirmed the increase in cases and is actively supporting Uganda's response efforts. This includes deploying experts, providing training in contact tracing, testing, patient care, and delivering essential medical supplies. 

In response to the outbreak, the United Nations has launched an emergency appeal for $11.2 million to support Uganda's efforts in containing the virus and mitigating its socio-economic impact across seven high-risk districts. 

Currently, there are no approved vaccines for the Sudan strain of the Ebola virus responsible for this outbreak. However, Uganda has initiated a trial vaccination program to assess potential candidates. 

Efforts are being intensified to monitor and trace contacts, and communities are being engaged to enhance public awareness and encourage early reporting of symptoms. Despite these measures, challenges remain, particularly in surveillance and contact tracing, as evidenced by the recent cases without clear links to known contacts. 

Uganda has a history of effectively managing Ebola outbreaks, including the 2022 outbreak that resulted in 55 deaths out of 143 infected individuals. The experience and systems built from past outbreaks are being leveraged to address the current situation. 

In February Uganda had announced that all eight patients who had been hospitalized for treatment have been discharged after testing negative twice for the virus in tests conducted 72 hours apart. The World Health Organization (WHO) regional office for Africa confirmed the development, describing it as an important step in controlling the outbreak.

The patients had been receiving treatment in the capital city, Kampala, and in Mbale. Despite their discharge, health officials continued to monitor 216 to 265 individuals who remained in quarantine due to potential exposure. Uganda’s Health Minister, Jane Ruth Aceng Ocero, confirmed the recovery of the eight patients and urged communities to welcome them without stigma.  If no new cases had been confirmed in the next 42 days, the outbreak could have been declared over.
 

Recent developments in Uganda's Ebola outbreak from the media:

The ebola outbreak poses a challenge for health workers in Uganda to contain

UN appeals for funds to help contain Uganda Ebola outbreak

About Ebola

Ebola: Transmission, Symptoms, Diagnosis, Treatment, Prevention and Control